Bubble? What Bubble?

from the New York Times...

August 23, 2005
Bubble? What Bubble?
By CHRIS HARRIS
Los Angeles

SO, you've been thinking about buying that first home, but you keep reading reports that this "housing bubble" may finally be nearing its peak. Things are cooling off; better sit things out for a while, right? Well, you've never been more wrong in your life.

As an expert in the field - I've spent my entire life living in or behind homes - I can assure you that aside from any moment in the past decade, there has never been a better time to enter the real estate market. Here are two important reasons.

We already experienced the Internet bubble. The crash taught us all that a feeling of invincibility can lead to disaster. Now that we've learned this humbling lesson, there's absolutely no possible way it could ever happen again to us.

More important, the housing market is incredibly durable. Unlike sneakers with lights in them or monogrammed poker chips or - I believe - computers, houses are not some fad that people will any day now look at and say: "This is stupid. I don't want mine anymore." Housing is a basic need, not unlike shelter.

The following Q. and A. should ease any remaining concerns.

Q. Are you sure I haven't missed the boat? Housing prices have risen so much already.

A. Actually, if you look at this chart, which is based on my years of research, you'll find that prices have been remarkably stable. No less a man than Winston Churchill put it best: "Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps [a phenomenal time for buying that starter home you've had your eye on]."

Q. Winston Churchill really said that?

A. I don't know why you're arguing with me. I used quotation marks.

Q. With my luck, the second I buy a home the market will collapse.

A. This just doesn't make any sense. There are literally trillions divided by trillions of new homeowners every week. Do you really think the entire market is geared to maximize your bad luck?

Q. I'm still not convinced.

A. Well then, look at these numbers:

Now: 58

Five years from now: 8,472

That's a nearly 15,000 percent increase!

Q. Wow. Wait, what exactly are those numbers?

A. What? What kind of question is that? This is just the kind of foot-dragging that's kept you paying rent on the same roach-infested closet for years while your home-owning friends have gotten fantastically wealthy. Did you know that we homeowners are having Champagne-and-caviar parties every weekend and not inviting you?

Q. Come on.

A. It's true. And sometimes we hire the White Stripes to play. That's right, the White Stripes. You love the White Stripes, don't you? Then buy a house!

Q. Aren't you being a little pushy?

A. What on earth is wrong with you? I'm doing this as a favor. It's not like I'm desperately trying to convince you because I myself have overspeculated in the housing market, now suddenly it's peaking, and if it doesn't continue its insane and completely unjustifiable rise then I'll lose everything. It's not that at all. Just relax.

Q. You relax.

A. I am relaxed. You're the one who's not relaxed. I'm totally fine.

And so to all prospective buyers out there, I say be confident as you pursue the American dream of owning your own home. And to my aunt in San Francisco, I love you and desperately need to ask you for a favor. Please return my calls before the 12th of next month.

Chris Harris is a writer for the forthcoming television show "How I Met Your Mother."



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